And in other matters ...

[blamebrampton]

Just caught up with the week's news (this has been the week of no time) -- are you Filipinos out there all all right? The flooding sounds horrible! Though I am glad to see that the rescue efforts seem to have pulled off some dramatic successes! Stay safe!


On a happier note, HAPPY BIRTHDAY ciel_vert ! May Flights of Franks sing you through the day!

And does anyone know if/where I can find a paper/book/website that posits a well-constructed model for worst-case scenario climate change from several centuries to 1000 years in the future? I know that the sort of thing I am looking for will come with a very long list of caveats, and that's fine, it's research for fiction! But I am looking for something that would be able to tell me what could happen if, say, the sea rose by 100m. Would the Gulf Stream definitely be stuffed? Would that level of water coverage keep the landmasses warm? Would England be balmy or bitter? What would grow where?

Alas! Why is the Star Trek future of my childhood not here yet? I'd be able to run models on the holodeck! (And I know that I am about to have more people comment on my poor grasp of Federation history than sneer at the concept of anthropogenic climate change, which cheers me immensely!)

Comments

[ant-queen.livejournal.com]

A good plain english one for people who are just generally not up to speed is CSIRO's "Climate Change: What You Can Do About It" By Paul Holper & Simon Torok. Published in 2008 so reasonably current. I felt it was a fairly sane and balanced publication.

There is also Tim Flannery's books. I just finished "Now or Never". It is a good follow on from his earlier works, but does go into some odd tangents. Personally, I'm not a fan of the whole "Gaia" personification thing, but I understand that for some people who aren't good with the science, they need a strong analogy to get their heads around it.

The hardest part of the whole thing is that their isn't a single cause, or a single projection, or a single solution. This is what really hampers the politics as anything that can't be expressed in a nice simple media sound bite is ignored, and any attempts to simplfy it down get hammered for not covering the whole picture.

I think I've got my head around most of the science and technology options for mitigation/adaption, but I'm still struggling with how the hell you globally smack everyone upside the head and get them to change the habits of the last 50 years.








Paperback - ISBN: 9781405038782 - AU $29.95

[blamebrampton.livejournal.com]

Alas, they're both good books on the actual mechanics of anthropogenic climate change and likely near-future effects. What I actually need is a little set of maps and figures that say 'Well, if we keep going hell for leather with coal and beef eating, this is what the United Island Kingdoms will look like in 2500 AD.'

And as a side note, the Gulf Stream, after slowing precipitously for years, sped up in April due to a mechanism that was unexpected but very welcome. As you say, we're still learning about the interconnectivity (and why some people see this as a reason to say 'In that case we can fuck with it at will!' is beyond me!.)

[ant-queen.livejournal.com]

Ah, so you want the "OMG WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE" worst case scenario. Don't think I've got much then, though I thought the IPCC 4th assessment was scary enough.

[blamebrampton.livejournal.com]

It's for a science-fiction-type story, so I am looking for something that would give a nicely huge reason for the breakdown of the global village, but also want it to be a realistic system shift rather than just discrete elements changed.

I'd like to think that we'll all have our head around reduced power use and solar before we get to this, though ...