Slightly febrile thoughts
I have a cold and am underslept due to waking up with my houseguest at 5am. This, in addition to the integral complexity of the situation, means it is hard to get my head around the situation in Iran.
The thing that is obvious and undeniable is that the people of Iran are as tired of and furious with their current government as they were in 1979. The best commentators agree that the religious/secular regime is almost certain to change in some way now, regardless of the immediate outcome of the recount and protests. Too many senior politicians and clerics have joined the protest to pretend that this is a student movement that can be stopped with a handful of killings on a university campus.
And this makes perfect sense; people want their rights and the rule of law in their country respected just as much if they are Muslims in a mostly police state as if they are Americans, Australians, or Britons. To believe otherwise (or to suggest as one loon in The Times did that such a stance is proof of the Neocon agenda) is simply to deny the nature of human beings. We are social creatures who want our societies to function as fairly as possible, even if that fairness seems radically different between one culture and another.
This, to me, seems to be the key behind the passion of the protests and the breadth of society represented by the protestors.
A lot of the lj commentary on the election reads the 'win' by Ahmadinejad as a blatant stealing of the election. If the reports from the Opposition are to be believed, there is definitely voting fraud, as the level of consistency in the margins across the country is not mathematically likely. However, pre-election polling by The Washington Times predicted a decisive win by Ahmadinejad, and it does seem possible that the incumbent government may well have won legitimately, but not trusted the people to deliver their desired results and have doctored them accordingly.
So while the protest movement may have begun with just disgruntled Mousavi supporters, the voices of Iranians such as Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri have been raised because they are appalled at the flagrant breach of law apparently committed by their government. Everyday Iranians have joined the movement because their government broke faith with them and decided that what it did was right, regardless of the law.
Just like Americans, Australians and Britons.
As to what will happen, no one seems willing to make a prediction, and that certainly includes me. Mousavi is not the democratising hero that parts of the Western media and some commentators are painting him as. While I rarely agree with the Ahmadinejad government, they are telling the truth when they say that he is not a white knight. He was Khomeni's Prime Minister after the Revolution and a major figure in the Iranian hostage crisis and the Marine killings in 1983. Since then he has clearly walked a long political path that has taken him away from his rigorous belief in the Khomeni reforms, even their weaker form now seen under Ayatollah Ali Khameni. But anyone who would see an election win by his party as the birth of Western-style democracy in Iran is probably dreaming, and at least overstating the case.
Tomorrow, next week, could bring anything, from the status quo being reinforced with guns, to a simple change of election winners, to an overthrow of the religious government.
Perhaps it is a good sign that Iranians of the status of Montazeri have joined the protest. Yet today's news says that at least 200 known reformists have been arrested, including 78-year-old Ebrahim Yazdi, the leader of Iran's 50-year-old Freedom Movement. The foreign media is being thrown out, which never bodes well. I did not think it was possible thought I would ever be grateful for Twitter, but I am.
I know that this is very, very wrong. But every time I hear Khameni referred to as the Supreme Leader, I think of Daleks.
And does anyone speak Farsi? I am anxious to know if Ahmadinejad has, as I thought, a soft Ah as its first syllable, or an Arabic-style Achh.
The thing that is obvious and undeniable is that the people of Iran are as tired of and furious with their current government as they were in 1979. The best commentators agree that the religious/secular regime is almost certain to change in some way now, regardless of the immediate outcome of the recount and protests. Too many senior politicians and clerics have joined the protest to pretend that this is a student movement that can be stopped with a handful of killings on a university campus.
And this makes perfect sense; people want their rights and the rule of law in their country respected just as much if they are Muslims in a mostly police state as if they are Americans, Australians, or Britons. To believe otherwise (or to suggest as one loon in The Times did that such a stance is proof of the Neocon agenda) is simply to deny the nature of human beings. We are social creatures who want our societies to function as fairly as possible, even if that fairness seems radically different between one culture and another.
This, to me, seems to be the key behind the passion of the protests and the breadth of society represented by the protestors.
A lot of the lj commentary on the election reads the 'win' by Ahmadinejad as a blatant stealing of the election. If the reports from the Opposition are to be believed, there is definitely voting fraud, as the level of consistency in the margins across the country is not mathematically likely. However, pre-election polling by The Washington Times predicted a decisive win by Ahmadinejad, and it does seem possible that the incumbent government may well have won legitimately, but not trusted the people to deliver their desired results and have doctored them accordingly.
So while the protest movement may have begun with just disgruntled Mousavi supporters, the voices of Iranians such as Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri have been raised because they are appalled at the flagrant breach of law apparently committed by their government. Everyday Iranians have joined the movement because their government broke faith with them and decided that what it did was right, regardless of the law.
Just like Americans, Australians and Britons.
As to what will happen, no one seems willing to make a prediction, and that certainly includes me. Mousavi is not the democratising hero that parts of the Western media and some commentators are painting him as. While I rarely agree with the Ahmadinejad government, they are telling the truth when they say that he is not a white knight. He was Khomeni's Prime Minister after the Revolution and a major figure in the Iranian hostage crisis and the Marine killings in 1983. Since then he has clearly walked a long political path that has taken him away from his rigorous belief in the Khomeni reforms, even their weaker form now seen under Ayatollah Ali Khameni. But anyone who would see an election win by his party as the birth of Western-style democracy in Iran is probably dreaming, and at least overstating the case.
Tomorrow, next week, could bring anything, from the status quo being reinforced with guns, to a simple change of election winners, to an overthrow of the religious government.
Perhaps it is a good sign that Iranians of the status of Montazeri have joined the protest. Yet today's news says that at least 200 known reformists have been arrested, including 78-year-old Ebrahim Yazdi, the leader of Iran's 50-year-old Freedom Movement. The foreign media is being thrown out, which never bodes well. I did not think it was possible thought I would ever be grateful for Twitter, but I am.
I know that this is very, very wrong. But every time I hear Khameni referred to as the Supreme Leader, I think of Daleks.
And does anyone speak Farsi? I am anxious to know if Ahmadinejad has, as I thought, a soft Ah as its first syllable, or an Arabic-style Achh.
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